On Tuesday morning, as polls for the U.S. midterm elections commenced, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $77,500, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.6% for the day and standing about $30,000 lower than its value from a year prior, as reported by data. The vote determines the control of Congress and, consequently, the future of the CLARITY Act, a market structure bill that received approval from the House with a vote of 294-134 in July 2025 but did not succeed in a Senate closure vote, which resulted in a tally of 49-50 on September 15. Prediction markets on Kalshi assign a 94% probability to Democrats securing the House and a 74% probability for the Senate. A Democratic Senate would likely position Sen. Elizabeth Warren to assume the chairmanship of the Banking Committee. If Congress fails to take action before the new session convenes on January 3, the bill will expire and will need to be reintroduced. Crypto groups allocated over $200 million toward the midterm elections, as reported. Analysts regard a Democratic sweep as the most likely scenario, which they believe would be the least advantageous for the industry; they contend that a divided Congress would allow for a more limited agreement. The bitcoin price action leading up to the vote has exhibited a singular trajectory.
Bitcoin price opened November near $78,500 and has declined by approximately $2,000 since then. October concluded with a decline of approximately 7%, marking the second consecutive decrease for the month. On October 28, following a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and disappointing earnings reports from Alphabet and Samsung, the price dipped below $80,000 for the first time in several weeks, resulting in approximately $356 million in liquidated leveraged positions. The more significant disturbance occurred the following day. On October 29, attackers identified by the FBI as linked to North Korea syphoned approximately $6.3 billion from Binance’s hot wallets, marking the largest recorded theft in the cryptocurrency sector. Bitcoin price remained resilient but experienced a decline of approximately 4% on Friday, resulting in the liquidation of over $1.3 billion in leveraged positions. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant outflow of $643.3 million on that day, marking the largest single-day withdrawal since June 25, as reported by SoSoValue data. Another $399 million departed on Monday. Bitcoin experienced a rebound to $78,491 late Sunday, only to decline once more on Monday and Tuesday. Traders are monitoring the support range of $76,264 to $76,476, aligning with the 200-day exponential moving average. Below that sits the September low of 74,967. The 50-day EMA near $80,800 represents the initial resistance level above. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recorded a value of 37 on Monday, indicating a state of “fear.”
The macroeconomic environment provides scant assistance. The Fed maintained its interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, following a 10-2 vote, with two officials expressing dissent in favour of an increase, after implementing a rate hike in September, marking the first adjustment since July 2023. Polymarket assigns a probability of approximately 71% to the likelihood of an interest rate increase in December. In September, the PCE inflation rate was recorded at 3.6% on a year-over-year basis, while the GDP for the third quarter experienced an annualised growth rate of 3.4%.The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36% in early October, marking its highest level since 2002, before declining to approximately 4.91% on Monday. Energy occupies a pivotal role in the inflation landscape. Brent crude experienced a decline of 7.7% on Monday, settling at $104.66 per barrel, following indications from Iran and the U.S. of a willingness to engage in discussions. This marked the most significant single-day decrease since July, according to source. The move reversed in part on Tuesday, with Brent returning to approximately $106.60 following reports of a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has sustained crude prices above $100, contributing to persistent headline inflation, thereby maintaining the Federal Reserve’s trajectory toward tightening monetary policy. Equities have intensified the pressure.
The Nasdaq experienced a decline of 2.9% on Friday, marking its most significant drop since June, as results from Intel and Amazon prompted concerns regarding AI capital expenditures, culminating in a total loss of 5.3% for the month of October. Bitcoin price has aligned with technology stocks during the selloff, rather than moving in opposition to them. The calendar is fully booked. The October jobs report is set to be released on Friday, with expectations hovering around 65,000 following September’s figure of 29,000. October CPI is set to be released on November 10, followed by the Federal Reserve’s next decision on December 9. Binance is scheduled to conduct its upcoming proof-of-reserves snapshot on Wednesday. Options markets exhibit a state of tranquillity, as evidenced by Deribit’s DVOL index hovering around 36.5, indicating that traders anticipate minimal volatility. Seasonality presents a contrasting perspective: Bitcoin’s price experienced a decline of 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022, the two latest midterm years, both occurring within bear markets.
