Bitcoin’s decline has intensified, now approaching the $77K region, following the loss of the $80K support area by buyers. The price is currently evaluating a significant daily demand zone, with on-chain data indicating that it is nearing the average cost basis of recent holders. On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has decisively breached the midpoint of the ascending channel. The pronounced bearish movement has driven the price below $80K and into the designated $75K-$78K demand zone, with BTC presently trading at approximately $77.7K. This region supported September’s advance, making it a significant test for the broader recovery. However, the latest candles indicate only a modest stabilisation in the aftermath of the selloff. Holding demand may lead to a relief bounce in the range of $78K to $80K; however, for buyers to indicate a more substantial recovery, it is essential to reclaim the previously breached midpoint near $81K.
The bearish continuation scenario continues to be favoured as long as the price remains below these lost levels. A sustained breakdown below $75K would expose the channel’s rising lower boundary around $72K-$73K. Conversely, a robust response from demand and a recovery above $81K would undermine the current bearish framework. The 4-hour chart indicates a pronounced decline subsequent to yet another unsuccessful attempt at recovery beneath the disrupted ascending trendline. Bitcoin breached the $79.8K support level and swiftly fell to approximately $76.3K, subsequently entering a consolidation phase around $77.3K. The modest rebound indicates that buyers have managed to decelerate the decline, though momentum has not yet been reversed.
The marked $74.9K-$76.3K demand zone represents the next immediate line of defence. A return beneath $76.3K would expose more of this region, while sustained acceptance below $74.9K would strengthen the case for further downside. On the upside, the recent consolidation around $78K-$78.3K represents the initial recovery obstacle. Beyond that, the highlighted $79.8K-$81.9K zone now signifies a potential area of overhead supply. Until Bitcoin reclaims this area, rebounds remain susceptible to establishing another lower high within the current correction. The Realised Price UTXO Age Bands chart monitors the average on-chain cost basis of coins categorised by age. The recent downturn has positioned Bitcoin close to the realised price of the 1-to-3-month cohort, which has experienced a significant increase, now hovering around $76K-$76.5K.
With the market price around $77.3K, these recent holders are nearing their aggregate breakeven point. This establishes a significant intersection with the technical demand zone in the range of $75K-$78K. A successful defence could help stabilise sentiment among this cohort, while a sustained move below its cost basis would place it in aggregate unrealised loss and could increase pressure on more sensitive holders. Meanwhile, the 6-to-12-month cohort’s realised price has decreased to approximately $84K-$85K, continuing to stay above the spot price. This region could pose an additional recovery challenge if holders utilise a return to breakeven as a rationale to decrease their exposure. Currently, the imminent cost basis of $76K-$76.5K serves as the more pressing reference point. Its interaction with price could aid in differentiating a transient correction in demand from a more profound decline, although realised price alone does not ensure support.
