Bitcoin traded just above 77,600 in Asian morning hours Thursday, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.5% over the past 24 hours, following a 24-hour low of 76,400 observed during late U.S. hours. XRP led the majors at $1.36, reflecting an increase of nearly 3%. BNB increased nearly 2% to just under $692, while Solana also rose by 2% to maintain the $100 threshold. Tron experienced a rise of approximately 1% to around 33 cents, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE remained stable just above $82. Ether underperformed the market, trading at just below $2,400. Over the course of the past week, ether has declined by nearly 4%, tron by approximately 3%, XRP by around 3%, and bitcoin by about 1%. This leaves zcash priced at $817, with HYPE as the sole major cryptocurrency exhibiting weekly gains.
Analysts indicated in an email that the average cost basis for all active investors on the network was established at $76,350, with bitcoin approaching within $50 of this figure before buyers intervened. The level has effectively absorbed sellers who entered the market in February and March throughout the week, with these participants opting to exit at breakeven rather than incurring a loss. The firm warned of a pullback in the coming weeks, citing seasonality. “September has historically been a bearish month for BTC, with an average return of -2.95 percent since 2013,” the analysts said. “With August’s momentum carrying into the month, we expect that any intra-month correction leaves the odds in favour of continuation higher on the higher timeframes” Bitcoin maintained its position despite a bond market exhibiting significant movement in the opposite direction.
Renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz have led to a significant increase in crude prices, reigniting the inflation trade. This development has caused the ten-year Treasury yield to rise to just above 4.8%, marking its highest close since 2023, while the dollar index has strengthened to just under 100. Equities demonstrated resilience, with the S&P 500 concluding at 7,646 and the Dow increasing by approximately 277 points, while gold found its level around $4,418. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch now indicates that the probability of a quarter-point hike on Sept. 16 stands at just above 62%, a decrease from just above 67% the previous day and approximately 37% a week prior, prior to Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
Futures prices indicate no likelihood of a reduction. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will determine the outcome of the September meeting, and the options market is aligned accordingly. Downside protection is established within the range of $68,000 to $75,000, designated for the period from payrolls to the CPI release on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, upside exposure is maintained through calls positioned above the existing range, while perpetual leverage remains significantly below its peak observed in August. A payrolls miss, compounded by Wednesday’s ADP number, has reduced the likelihood of a rate hike and reinstated the prospect of reaching $80,000.
