Bitcoin remains steady above $78,000 as the market grapples with increased uncertainty stemming from ongoing US-Iran tensions, which have led to a cautious risk appetite across global markets. The price remains resilient — however, analyst Axel Adler has recently released an exchange flow analysis that introduces a particular structural dimension to the current landscape. What it reveals is a market that is more intricate beneath the surface than the prevailing price level indicates. The Bitcoin Exchange Netflow data reveals a narrative of supply entering exchanges, yet lacking the typical selling activity that usually accompanies it. In the last week, net inflows reached around 8,512 BTC across all exchanges, with notable surges occurring on April 27 and April 30. Those are significant movements. In total, the two sessions resulted in approximately 16,800 BTC being introduced to exchange platforms within a short timeframe. What stands out is what did not occur subsequently. Throughout the peak of the inflow surge, the price experienced an upward trajectory rather than a decline. The market effectively absorbed the incoming supply without any immediate price impact, indicating that demand at these levels was adequate to meet the selling pressure from holders.
Since May 1, flows have stabilized, approaching neutral levels. The coins are currently listed on exchanges. The selling phase has yet to commence. Adler’s analysis characterizes this as a dry powder structure — and the timing, as well as the decision of whether that powder is utilized, will determine Bitcoin’s next trajectory. Adler’s second chart provides the cumulative perspective that rounds out the netflow analysis. Total Bitcoin exchange reserves across all platforms reached 2,685,541 BTC as of May 4, marking an increase of 5,773 BTC from the 2,679,768 noted on April 28. On April 30, the weekly peak reached an impressive 2,686,791 BTC, but reserves started to see a slight decline in the days that followed. The slight downturn represents the most positive recent trend in the data. When reserves decline while prices remain stable or increase, it indicates that the market is absorbing the available supply instead of permitting it to build up into a significant surplus. The trajectory of the reserve in the upcoming sessions will dictate if the existing framework resolves positively or poses a risk. Adler accurately describes the existing situation as dry powder. Holders have deposited supply on exchange platforms, strategically positioning themselves for potential sales. However, the transformation of that deposited supply into tangible market sales remains unverified. The coins are present. The pressure is not — at least not yet.
The analysis pinpoints a mechanical and specific risk. If the market ceases to absorb new inflows — if demand weakens at existing price levels while the reserve stays high — the overhang can swiftly shift into genuine selling pressure. The gap between the positioned supply and the active selling is narrower than what the held price level indicates. The confirmation signal Adler highlights is notably precise: a continued drop in exchange reserves coupled with ongoing price increases would confirm that the market structure is truly robust rather than being propped up artificially. Until that combination surfaces, the dry powder stays primed. Bitcoin is currently trading around $79,000, continuing its recovery from the capitulation low seen in February. However, the market structure indicates a transitional phase rather than a fully bullish trend. The chart indicates a distinct transition from a downtrend to a forming higher-low sequence, as the price has reclaimed the short-term moving average and is now pushing back above the $74,000–$75,000 zone, which once served as resistance and is currently being evaluated as support. This level holds technical significance. This aligns with the 50-day moving average and a previous consolidation range, establishing it as a crucial validation point for the ongoing recovery. Buyers have shown resilience on pullbacks, indicating that demand exists, albeit in a measured manner.
Currently, Bitcoin is nearing the $80,000–$82,000 zone, with the 200-day moving average still showing a downward trend. This results in a convergence of active resistance above. The price is currently sandwiched between an upward short-term support and a downward higher-timeframe resistance. Volume has yet to confirm a breakout. Participation has been somewhat subdued in contrast to the selloff phase, suggesting that the upward movement may be fueled more by diminished selling pressure rather than robust new demand. If Bitcoin maintains its position above $74,000, the setup suggests a potential continuation. Should it fail to maintain this level, we could see the price retreating towards the $65,000–$67,000 demand zone.