Bitcoin is currently trading beneath a crucial cost threshold that short-term holders invested to obtain it — indicating that a significant number of recent buyers are facing losses as we approach one of the month’s largest options expiry events. Current data indicates that Bitcoin is trading below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $78,900, as well as beneath the True Market Mean of $78,000. Support levels are identified lower, specifically within the $65,000–$70,000 range. The stage is set for a cautious atmosphere as approximately 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts, valued at $1.74 billion, are poised to expire today on the derivatives exchange Deribit.
The put-call ratio for those contracts currently stands at 1.10, indicating that a greater number of traders are wagering on price declines rather than increases. Bitcoin’s max pain price — the level at which the highest number of options expire worthless — stands at $76,000, just below its trading price at press time of approximately $77,200. Deribit has highlighted the settlement as one to monitor closely, with data indicating a 95% probability that Bitcoin options will expire above the $76,000 threshold. Significant trading activity is focused around the $75,500 and $77,000 strike prices. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s put-call ratio surged to 0.73, even as overall trading volume saw a decline. The Federal Reserve’s choice to maintain interest rates at their current level played a role in the economic slowdown.
Ethereum is experiencing comparable pressure. Today marks the expiration of over 175,000 ETH options valued at $400 million on Deribit, accompanied by a put-call ratio of 0.95. In the past 24 hours, put volume surged significantly beyond call volume, elevating the ratio to 1.17 — indicating that traders are positioning themselves for possible downside risks. Ethereum’s current trading position in relation to max pain sets it apart from other cryptocurrencies. The ETH max pain price stands at $2,325, yet the token was trading at approximately $2,284 at the time of this report — already dipping below that threshold. The 24-hour range fluctuated between $2,232 and $2,293. In the last 24 hours, trading volume has seen a significant decline of 45%. The options expiry is occurring within a broader context. US PCE inflation has surged to a three-year high of 3.5%, shaking up broader markets and triggering profit-taking in the crypto space.
Oil prices surged to $106 a barrel as the US continued its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Sources reveal that US President Donald Trump has turned down Iran’s proposal to resolve the ongoing standoff, with indications of a potential escalation contributing to market anxiety. Collectively, these elements have maintained a sense of caution among buyers. Crypto markets experienced significant sell-offs following the release of inflation data, while the geopolitical landscape remains fraught with uncertainty. Today’s options expiry could either intensify the pressure or unfold without any significant events, hinging on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position above the $76,000 threshold as contracts come to a close.