Bitcoin is currently priced at $78.3k as we kick off the first weekend of May. The asset has achieved a milestone it hasn’t reached since the cycle peak, successfully closing above the 100-day moving average and breaking out of a long-term descending channel that has encapsulated the entire bearish trend. The decision follows robust daily RSI readings, a successful retest of the breakout level on the 4-hour chart, and an on-chain supply analysis that clarifies why the path forward may become more challenging, yet still holds potential rewards. On the daily chart, BTC is making strides toward the upper limit of the mid-term ascending channel after successfully reclaiming the 100-day moving average, which has now settled in the $72k range. The RSI is on the rise, approaching 70, indicating persistent bullish signals while still allowing for further momentum, as an overbought condition has yet to be attained. The $80k supply zone continues to be the critical test, having restricted the price on each attempt since February. A solid daily close above this zone would pave the way toward the $90k level, with the 200-day moving average also positioned nearby at the $85k mark.
On the downside, the lower boundary of the current zone at $75k stands as the initial line of support to uphold, succeeded by the 100-day moving average situated just beneath this level. The 4-hour chart reveals a classic post-breakout structure. The asset surged past the $75k mark, subsequently pulled back to retest this level, as clearly indicated on the chart, and has now rallied back toward the $79k area, with the RSI also rising above 60, indicating a distinct bullish shift in momentum. The structure appears solid, and the retest reinforces confidence in the movement. The upper channel boundary is converging with the $80k psychological level, establishing an immediate ceiling for price action. A 4-hour close above the recent highs around $79.5k, coupled with the RSI remaining below the overbought territory, maintains the bullish structure and aims for the $82k-$84k supply zone above.
Should there be any pullback, the $75k zone may once again become crucial, as it represents the significant support level in this timeframe. Currently, 64.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is in profit, indicating a significant recovery from the February low. However, the fact that 35.8% remains underwater highlights a more critical aspect of the situation. The majority of that unprofitable supply was purchased in the range of $80k to $125k during the late 2025 distribution phase. This indicates that BTC is now entering a price zone where a significant group of holders is nearing breakeven, heightening the motivation to sell.
Historically, crossing the 75–80% supply-in-profit threshold has indicated the moment when correction-driven overhead pressure significantly diminishes, allowing momentum to maintain its course. The latest figure of 64.2% indicates that the threshold remains unbroken, shedding light on why the $80k–$90k range continues to serve as a formidable barrier. Every upward movement transforms more underwater holders into profit-takers, while simultaneously diminishing the pool of forced sellers. Should the price surpass $80k, the supply-in-profit curve may swiftly advance toward levels that have historically indicated the onset of the next substantial upward movement.