Bitcoin is entrenched in its bear market; however, it is exhibiting an unusual behaviour: remaining stagnant. According to a recent report, thirty-day realised volatility has decreased to 27.2% annualised, a decline from 30.4% the previous month and significantly below bitcoin’s long-run average of approximately 80%. For an asset characterised by double-digit daily fluctuations, this represents an atypically calm market. The current tranquillity follows bitcoin’s recovery from a June low close to $58,500, as it has remained within a narrow range of $62,265 to $66,509 for the majority of July. Bitcoin is currently approximately 9% under its 200-day moving average, a reduction from the 14% discount observed a month prior, while it continues to be around 49% beneath its all-time peak.
Trading activity indicates a market that is currently in a state of suspension. Spot volume over the trailing 30 days has decreased by 27% compared to the previous month, positioning itself in the 10th percentile of its historical range, as noted by VanEck. Analysts at an investment firm observe that the summer slowdown is more pronounced than in either 2024 or 2025, resulting in spot volumes declining to levels reminiscent of the 2023 bear market. Simultaneously, longstanding holders have begun to divest their coins, according to VanEck.
Bitcoin held for more than a year decreased by approximately 356,000 BTC (-2.9%) over the month, resulting in the long-term holder share of total supply dropping below 60% for the first time in several months. The selling activity was predominantly observed among coins held for a duration of one to three years, whereas the longest-term holders, those possessing coins for over a decade, exhibited minimal movement, declining by only 0.1%. As we enter a phase traditionally linked to bitcoin’s four-year boom-and-bust cycle, research from VanEck indicates that 8 out of 12 monitored capitulation signals are currently active, aligning with the latter stages of a drawdown.
Based on the duration of previous cycles, the firm anticipates a potential bottom emerging between September and November of this year. However, it notes that the historical performance of returns following similar signal clusters is inconsistent, demonstrating a distinct advantage only over a complete one-year timeframe. Currently, the narrative surrounding bitcoin is characterised less by its trajectory and more by the remarkable tranquillity of a market that, according to its historical patterns, seldom remains this subdued for an extended period.
