Bitcoin remained stable at approximately $63,800 on Monday, as gold, oil, equities, and government bonds experienced declines following the U.S.’s fourth round of strikes on Iran within a week. The largest cryptocurrency experienced a decline of 0.3% over the past 24 hours, while reflecting an increase of 2% for the week. The traditional market reaction that had been paused over the weekend materialised abruptly. Spot gold declined by as much as 1.6%, approaching $4,050 per ounce. Brent crude surged 4% to exceed $79 a barrel, driven by conflicting assertions regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which heightened concerns about supply disruptions. Treasuries experienced a decline across the curve, as the two-year yield rose to its peak since February 2025, while MSCI’s Asia Pacific equities index saw a decrease of 1.6%.
Central Command reported that U.S. forces conducted strikes against Iran following an attack on a container ship. The status of the strait remains ambiguous, as the U.S. refutes Iran’s assertion that the waterway would be closed “until further notice.” Approximately 20% of global seaborne oil typically transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The moves reflected a singular concern: that an escalation in conflict could sustain elevated oil prices and compel the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting indicate that several policymakers initially considered the rationale for increasing interest rates before ultimately deciding to maintain the current stance. Gold declined as the prolonged higher interest rate trajectory increases real yields, diminishing the attractiveness of a non-yielding asset. Similarly, bonds experienced a decrease for the same rationale.
However, bitcoin refrained from participating in any of it. Ether remained relatively stable at approximately $1,800, reflecting a weekly increase of 2%. Meanwhile, the other major cryptocurrencies exhibited minimal movement throughout the day, with Solana showing the most significant decline at $76, down 5% over the past week. XRP maintained a value of $1.09, while dogecoin lingered around $0.07. The singular thread pertinent to cryptocurrency is evident in Korean equities. SK Hynix shares experienced a decline of 12% in Seoul following a 13% increase in the chipmaker’s U.S.-listed shares during their debut on Friday. This reversal contributed to a 7% drop in the Kospi. The chip trade was the catalyst for the rally that propelled bitcoin on Friday; however, the subsequent sharp reversal on Monday resulted in the cryptocurrency remaining relatively unchanged in either direction.
Bitcoin has maintained a narrow trading range despite a weekend marked by strikes, a Monday selloff across assets typically sensitive to geopolitical tensions, and a hawkish adjustment in Federal Reserve expectations. That represents a significant shift for a market that previously reacted swiftly to a single headline from Hormuz. It is no longer influenced by the war, instead deriving its direction from dollar liquidity and the chip cycle, while oil, gold, and interest rates respond accordingly. Digital assets experienced a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, marking the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market. This decline coincided with a shift in institutional capital towards AI equities, while Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest quarterly outflow since inception. Our report analyses the factors that contributed to the divergence, identifies areas of structural adoption that persisted, and highlights the key signals to monitor in Q3.