Bitcoin traded near $62,000 today, giving back some of the gains from a rebound that had lifted it to $64,000 from last week’s bear-market low of $57,700. The pullback maintains the price above the $60,000 level regarded by CryptoQuant as support, although it reduces a recovery of approximately 11% from the lowest point. The dip occurred as CryptoQuant’s Weekly Crypto Report, released today and disseminated to Bitcoin Magazine, contended that the prevailing conditions favour additional gains. Head of Research Julio Moreno characterised the recent bounce as a recovery within a bear market, emphasising a critical caution: the firm’s Bull Score Index, which aggregates on-chain, market, and valuation conditions on a scale from 0 to 100, currently stands at 20. This figure remains within the bearish zone, defined as 40 or below, and is significantly below the 60 threshold associated with a sustainable bull market.
The report’s optimistic scenario is grounded in seasonal trends. Over the last ten years, July has consistently positioned itself as one of Bitcoin’s more robust months, with a majority of years reflecting a higher closing price. The pattern persisted during the downturns of 2018 and 2022, with Bitcoin experiencing gains of approximately 20% and 17% respectively during those months, despite the overall trend remaining weak. Entering July 2026 off a bear-market low, the report indicated that this pattern skews near-term risk toward gains. Demand has shifted. The 30-day change in total demand — encompassing both spot and perpetual futures — plummeted to approximately -650,000 BTC in early June, marking the most significant negative figure since 2022, coinciding with Bitcoin’s decline toward $58,000. It has since rebounded toward a neutral stance, as speculative futures demand has transitioned into positive territory, while spot selling has moderated to its slowest rate since mid-May.
A return to positive territory, the report stated, would confirm a re-ignition of the demand engine U.S. buyers exhibit indications of stabilisation. The Coinbase Premium Index, serving as an indicator for U.S. spot demand, fell below zero in early June as Bitcoin reached a low near $57,000, marking one of its weakest readings of the year. The premium remains negative, although its trajectory has followed Bitcoin’s ascent from the lows and indicates a more stable institutional demand. Valuation established a baseline. The on-chain trader unrealised profit/loss margin for coins held one to three months fell below -24% in early June, dipping under the -12% threshold that the firm considers indicative of undervaluation.
Readings at such extremes typically indicate local bottoms as short-term holders capitulate, according to the report, and the margin has recovered as the price rebounded from $57,700. Today’s decline to $62,000 highlights the report’s inherent caution. CryptoQuant assesses the market as having moved away from its lows, exhibiting signs of improving internals; however, a bearish regime remains in place. A sustainable rally, it was concluded, would necessitate the Bull Score Index to ascend beyond 60. Until then, the firm characterises the move as a recovery within a bear market, rather than a reversal — a perspective that this week’s pullback does little to contest.