Bitcoin has staged a notable rebound after sweeping liquidity beneath the June lows; however, the recovery is now approaching a critical resistance cluster. While momentum has shown signs of improvement in the short term, the overarching structure continues to exhibit bearish characteristics until BTC successfully reclaims several significant resistance levels above. The daily timeframe indicates that Bitcoin persists in trading beneath its critical moving averages, with both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages trending downward and serving as dynamic resistance. The market continues to exhibit a structurally bearish trend following the breach of the $72K-$74K support zone in June, which has subsequently transformed into a significant supply area. However, the recent price action is increasingly indicative of a more constructive trend. BTC successfully defended the $58K-$61K support region and produced a sharp bounce from the lower boundary of the broader descending structure.
More importantly, the daily RSI has exhibited a bullish divergence, as momentum has established higher lows while the price recorded similar or lower lows near the June bottom. This divergence frequently manifests during exhaustion phases and indicates that selling pressure has been diminishing, even in the context of a downtrend. The immediate challenge is situated between $65K and $67K, where a significant resistance zone coincides with the descending upper trendline. A successful breakout above this area would likely trigger a larger recovery toward the former breakdown region near $72K-$74K. Conversely, a rejection from the current resistance cluster would reinforce the prevailing bearish structure and heighten the likelihood of another move toward the $60K support area. The 4-hour chart illustrates a nascent falling wedge formation. Bitcoin recently rebounded from the lower boundary near $58K and has advanced steadily toward the upper trendline, which currently converges with the $63K-$64K area.
The recovery has successfully reclaimed the $60K-$61K support zone, transforming it into a short-term demand area. Price is currently testing the upper boundary of the wedge as it approaches the lower edge of the $64K-$66.5K supply zone. A breakout above the descending trendline could accelerate bullish momentum and open the path toward the higher resistance region around $65K-$67K. Such a move would also validate a temporary alteration in market dynamics following several weeks of declining peaks. If the breakout fails, Bitcoin may persist in consolidating within the wedge prior to making another attempt at a higher trajectory. The $60K-$61K region remains the most important near-term support, while a breakdown below it would place the recent recovery at risk. The Spot Average Order Size metric offers valuable insights into the actions of significant market players. Recent data indicates that transactions of significant magnitude persist in overshadowing overall activity, even as Bitcoin hovers near its recent lows.
The latest readings indicate that large orders remain active in the market while prices hover around the $60K-$63K region. While the metric by itself does not indicate directional intent, the ongoing presence of larger transaction sizes amid a sustained decline implies that institutional and high-net-worth participants continue to be involved rather than withdrawing from the market. In light of the bullish RSI divergence observed on the daily chart, alongside Bitcoin’s maintenance of the $58K-$61K support zone, the data indicates that there may be a growing interest in accumulation at these levels. Nevertheless, confirmation still requires a technical breakout above the descending trendline and the resistance cluster of $65K-$67K. Until that occurs, Bitcoin remains within a wider corrective framework, with the ongoing recovery resembling more of a foundational effort than a definitive trend reversal.