On-chain indicators analysed by experts suggest that bitcoin has not yet reached its bottom in this bear cycle. The latest report indicates that the leading digital asset may experience a further decline into the $40,000s by year-end, as a growing number of investors exit the spot market. Historically, BTC has experienced a decline of at least 70% from its all-time highs before reaching a bottom and initiating a recovery. During the 2022 bear market, BTC experienced a significant decline of 78% from its peak of $69,000, while in 2018, it saw an even steeper drop of 86% from cycle highs near $20,000.
Based on previous drawdown patterns and the time horizons between tops and bottoms, BTC is likely to extend its ongoing decline into the $40,000s. The asset is presently down 53.9% from its all-time high of $126,000; a drop into the $40,000s would result in a decline of at least 68%. Additionally, analysts suggest that BTC might hit its bear-cycle bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026, provided that cycle estimates take into consideration price movements in relation to moving averages. Analysts report that BTC’s structural levels have not shifted, despite the asset’s floor breaking down over the weekend. Currently, the coin is trading around $60,000, placing it below the True Market Mean of $77,000, which signifies the average cost basis for active investors.
This level also serves as a clear boundary between bullish and bearish market regimes, indicating that bitcoin’s price action will persistently be shaped by a structural bear market environment. After breaking below the $61,500 support level and hitting a new bear cycle low of $58,136 last week, $53,400 has emerged as the crucial support level to monitor. The shift towards $58,000 indicates a decline in spot demand, evidenced by short-term holder selling, outflows from exchange-traded funds, the breakdown of the digital asset treasury channel, and negative gamma pressure.
In a notable shift from past downturns, the recent drop of BTC below $60,000 last week occurred without any significant liquidations or a substantial decrease in open interest. This substantiated the fact that the decline was a structural exodus within the spot markets. With the market’s primary demand engine absent, bitcoin’s price is expected to stay weak and persist in a downtrend in the upcoming weeks.