Geoff Kendrick stated on Friday that the crypto market has reached its cycle low, with Bitcoin’s recent decline to around $59,000 indicating the lowest point of the current downturn — a 53% drop from its all-time high of $126,000 in October. “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” Kendrick wrote in a Friday note, adding, “I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle.” Bitcoin had rebounded to approximately $64,000 at the time of Kendrick’s note, indicating a gain of about 5% compared to the previous week. The bank maintains a price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin by year-end — projections it first issued in February.
One of the two primary catalysts Kendrick cited is the historic Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share on June 12. Shares commenced trading significantly higher than their initial public offering price, experiencing an approximate 20% increase on the first day of trading. Kendrick noted that a considerable amount of recent Bitcoin ETF outflows — exceeding $5.72 billion since the second week of May, marking some of the most substantial “since inception” — was influenced by investors liquidating crypto holdings to obtain SpaceX allocations. With the IPO now live, that specific selling pressure may ease, he stated. The intersection of cryptocurrency and SpaceX interest is currently unfolding in real time. On Hyperliquid, perpetual contracts for SpaceX had accumulated over $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume ahead of the debut — ranking it as the eighth-largest asset on the platform.
The second catalyst pertains to geopolitical factors. A potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, timed ahead of next week’s G7 summit, could alleviate pressure on global oil supplies that have remained constrained since the onset of hostilities in the Middle East. Lower oil prices would subsequently temper the heightened U.S. Treasury yields — which have exerted pressure on risk assets such as crypto by enhancing the appeal of risk-free government debt. West Texas Intermediate crude experienced a decline of approximately 1.5% on Friday, settling in the range of $85–$86 per barrel. However, the narrative surrounding the peace deal remained delicate. President Trump indicated on Thursday that a breakthrough might be imminent this weekend. However, he later took to Truth Social to express that the publicly announced deal did not align with the original agreement, cautioning Iranian officials to “get their act together.” This development introduces additional uncertainty to the macroeconomic landscape.
Kendrick outlined three confirmation signals that would validate his call. First, he is monitoring for Strategy to declare an additional Bitcoin acquisition on Monday, as CEO Michael Saylor’s purchasing history has proven to be a dependable indicator of institutional demand. Second, he anticipates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs will see a return to net-positive daily inflows on Friday. Third, he seeks to observe ongoing decreases in global oil prices as the diplomatic situation with Iran progresses. If all three materialise, Kendrick’s crypto spring thesis gains its clearest validation yet — indicating that institutional and macro forces are finally aligning to drive Bitcoin back toward the bank’s $100,000 year-end target.