Bitcoin is currently stabilising slightly above the $60K mark following a tumultuous first half of 2026, during which the asset experienced a significant decline from its January peak of approximately $96K. The recent rebound off the June lows has reinstated a degree of short-term optimism; however, the price is currently experiencing a stall just below a significant confluence of moving-average resistance. Whether this marks the beginning of a true trend reversal or merely another lower high within the overarching downtrend will likely be determined in the coming sessions. On the daily timeframe, BTC continues to be constrained beneath its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are converging around the $70K level and maintain a downward trajectory. This indicates that the higher-timeframe trend has not yet transitioned to a bullish stance.
Since its decline from $96K in January, Bitcoin has established a pattern of lower highs, with the recoveries in April and May faltering around $82K before descending to the June and July low near $58K. However, the asset has since established a sequence of short-term higher lows in relation to the broader structure, accompanied by a distinct bullish divergence with the RSI, and the market has successfully reclaimed the $64K threshold. A sustained close above the confluence of moving averages and the 74K supply zone would be the first real evidence that the downtrend is losing control, potentially opening the door toward the prior resistance zone near 82K. On the downside, failure to build on this recovery would put the 60K zone back in focus as the immediate support. A breakdown below that level would expose the major demand region around $54K, which remains the key higher-timeframe floor.
The 4-hour chart presents a more coherent view. Bitcoin reached its lowest point within the $58K-$60K demand zone in late June and has been progressively ascending within a rising wedge pattern, establishing higher lows along the lower trendline. That advance propelled the price into the resistance cluster of $65K–$67K established by the highs of June. However, the latest candles indicate a rejection from this area, with the price breaking the wedge to the downside and retreating toward $64K. The RSI has also cooled from overbought territory near 70 down toward the 40 zone, reflecting fading momentum rather than outright bearish pressure. A rebound and reclaim of the recent highs around the $67K zone would support a push toward $72K–$74K, while continued rejection and decline here would validate the rising wedge breakdown and likely send the price back to retest the $58K support area, which, as things stand, is the more probable scenario. Examining Bitcoin’s spot average order size reveals that substantial whale orders have consistently influenced the market throughout the decline and the subsequent recovery since June. This represents a significant departure from the retail-centric order flow observed in December 2025 around the $90K mark.
This metric monitors the distribution of executed spot orders by size, differentiating between trades of retail magnitude and substantial block orders that are generally linked to institutional or high-net-worth entities. Persistent activity from large investors during a drawdown typically indicates accumulation rather than capitulation, as these major players often prefer to increase their positions during weakness instead of pursuing strength. The sustained existence of substantial whale orders during the $58K low and the subsequent rebound above $64K indicates that accumulation has been occurring at these diminished levels. If this behaviour persists as price approaches the $72K-$74K resistance, it would lend credibility to the case for a deeper structural reversal. A sudden shift back toward retail-dominated flow near resistance, by contrast, would serve as a caution flag worth monitoring and could indicate another potential decline in the coming weeks.