Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been hovering around the $75,000 mark this week, reflecting a decline of approximately 40% from its peak of over $126,000. However, two of the most influential individuals in the world are wagering that it will rise significantly. “Donald Trump purchases a burger using Bitcoin. “Just the beginning,” posted a Dogecoin trends analyst on X this week, reacting to a video of the president using bitcoin for a fast-food purchase. “When real adoption kicks in, Dogecoin is next.” The video surged in popularity at an unusual time. The U.S. government is in possession of 328,372 bitcoin, valued at around $24.5 billion based on current market rates, in what has been referred to by Trump as the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. In a significant development, Elon Musk’s SpaceX holds 8,285 bitcoin valued at $603 million, securely stored in Coinbase Prime custody. This comes as the company gears up for what may become the largest IPO in history, aiming for a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion. Together, Trump and Musk now hold approximately $25 billion in bitcoin. If Congress greenlights active reserve purchases and SpaceX maintains its position through the IPO, that figure could see significant growth. SpaceX has confidentially submitted its IPO filing in early April, aiming for a June listing that has the potential to generate tens of billions of dollars. The company is set to become the largest known corporate bitcoin holder to go public, a development that has certainly caught the attention of crypto market observers. Tony Edward highlighted in an April 13 video that SpaceX’s choice to retain over $600 million in bitcoin reflects what he described as Musk’s “unwavering long-term conviction in the asset.” Edward pointed out that SpaceX has maintained its bitcoin holdings since mid-2024, securing its position as the fourth-largest known corporate holder.
In 2021, SpaceX started to amass bitcoin, and during the 2022 crypto crash, it liquidated approximately 70% of its holdings, yet it has maintained its position since then. The IPO filing arrives just weeks following the February merger between SpaceX and Musk’s xAI, which is valued at a staggering $1.25 trillion. On the flip side, Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is still in a state of uncertainty. In March 2025, the president enacted an executive order that established the reserve, instructing the Treasury to maintain forfeited bitcoin as a permanent reserve asset. However, over a year has passed, and the reserve continues to be without the necessary congressional authorization to achieve full operational status. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to U.S. crypto leadership and the strategic bitcoin reserve. Senators Bill Cassidy and Cynthia Lummis have unveiled the Mined in America Act, aimed at bolstering digital asset mining and reinforcing the reserve. However, the legislative machinery operates at a sluggish pace. “Tariff pauses trigger BTC pumps as liquidity stress test, signaling macro regime change,” stated crypto analyst on X, highlighting the trend of bitcoin surging whenever Trump’s trade war rhetoric eases. The analyst pointed out that Trump’s tariff cycle, characterized by threats followed by pauses and relief rallies, is conditioning bitcoin to act as a macro hedge. Multiple elements may align to drive bitcoin beyond the $100,000 threshold.
On Polymarket, a crypto-native prediction market, traders are currently pricing in a 37.5% chance that bitcoin will surpass $100,000 by December 31, 2026, with approximately $1.26 million in volume. Michael Saylor shared on X in March: “If it’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million.” In an October 2025 interview, Saylor forecasted that bitcoin might soar to between $143,000 and $170,000 in 2026, driven by significant U.S. banks entering the market to buy and custody the asset. Cathie Wood stated on April 1 that the period of severe drawdowns for bitcoin has come to an end. “The 85-95% collapses associated with a very new technology, that’s done,” Wood stated. “This is a proven technology, it’s a proven monetary system, and it’s a new asset class.” ARK continues to uphold a bullish bitcoin price target of $1.2 million by the year 2030. During the Bitcoin 2024 conference held in Nashville, Trump announced his goal to establish the United States as the “Bitcoin superpower of the world.” He committed to safeguarding the right to self-custody for 50 million American crypto holders and vowed to prevent any efforts to introduce a central bank digital currency. The urgency of that pledge has intensified with the approach of the 2026 midterms. If Congress takes action on the Strategic Reserve and the Treasury starts actively buying bitcoin, we could see a substantial supply shock. The U.S. currently possesses a larger amount of bitcoin than any other recognized government globally. Increased purchasing activity would deplete coins from a supply that is already limited.
There are skeptics regarding the viability of the Trump-Musk bitcoin thesis. Bitcoin is currently hovering around 40% beneath its all-time high of over $126,000 reached in October 2025, with Trump’s tariff policies contributing to its struggle to break the $100,000 mark for several months now. Tom Edward expressed a bullish stance on SpaceX’s bitcoin conviction, yet he was notably critical of the Trump family’s wider engagement in the crypto space. He contended that the public spectacle linked to Trump’s World Liberty Financial initiative and the related meme coins undermines the credibility of the crypto sector, despite the fact that the president’s official policies continue to yield positive outcomes. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve highlights the disparity between what is said and what is actually done. Trump signed the executive order over a year ago, yet the Treasury still does not have the necessary congressional authorization to initiate active purchases. The Polymarket odds illustrate the prevailing uncertainty: with a 37.5% stake, most traders are wagering that bitcoin will not hit the $100,000 mark this year.
Trump’s ongoing tariff war with China, featuring threats of 50% duties on Chinese goods, remains a significant factor impacting risk assets. On April 15, Bitcoin experienced a decline of nearly 3% as investors took the opportunity to secure profits after a surge past $75,000, fueled by optimism surrounding potential U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. SpaceX’s IPO, anticipated in June, will necessitate a public disclosure of Musk’s bitcoin holdings. If index funds adjust to incorporate SpaceX, that could significantly boost institutional investments in bitcoin. On Capitol Hill, the Mined in America Act introduced by Senators Cassidy and Lummis aims to codify the Strategic Reserve and could potentially pave the way for Treasury purchases. Bitcoin was last seen trading around $74,800. Saylor is making a purchase. Wood asserts that the crashes have come to an end. Trump envisions a “Bitcoin superpower.” Musk is preparing to take $603 million in bitcoin public. Whether the price aligns with the conviction is the $100,000 question.