Bitcoin was priced at approximately $74,700, reflecting a 0.4% decrease over the past 24 hours. However, it remains up 3.5% for the week, as the 10-day rally in global equities took a breather ahead of the upcoming expiry of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire next week. Ether retraced 1.4% to $2,327, yet it continues to dominate the major cryptocurrencies on the weekly chart with a 6% gain, furthering the outperformance that surfaced earlier this week. XRP maintained its position at $1.43, reflecting a 6.4% increase over the week. Solana saw a rise of 2.7%, reaching $87.67, while BNB experienced a modest gain of 0.7%, now priced at $629.89. Dogecoin also made strides, climbing 5.6% for the week to settle at $0.0976.
The MSCI All Country World Index reached a record high on Thursday, only to dip 0.1% in Asia thereafter. The S&P 500 has reached an unprecedented peak. Brent crude experienced a decline of 1.2%, settling at $98.20, following President Donald Trump’s remarks that the chances for a lasting ceasefire in Iran were “looking very good.” Trump asserted, lacking substantiation, that Tehran had consented to abandon its nuclear aspirations, transfer nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a component of the agreement. Iran has yet to confirm those concessions. On Thursday, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming the truce in a video message. Markets are reacting to the headlines, suggesting that the deal is nearer than reality. This sentiment is contributing to equities shedding much of the war premium, while crude oil prices hover around $98, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely inaccessible.
Nonetheless, the underlying dynamics beneath the stagnant bitcoin price movement are capturing the interest of certain traders. In recent sessions, Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have plunged into deeply negative territory, hitting levels not observed since 2023. Funding represents the regular payments that perpetual futures traders make to one another, ensuring that contract prices remain in sync with the spot market. When it goes negative, shorts are paying longs, which only occurs when the market is significantly positioned against price. “Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short,” Daniel Reis-Faria stated in a note. “Should Bitcoin persist in its upward trajectory, many of those positions may face liquidation, potentially leading to a rapid acceleration of the move.” Reis-Faria anticipates that bitcoin might hit $125,000 within the next 30 to 60 days, contingent on the short base being squeezed out. The contrarian perspective from on-chain analyst indicates that bitcoin’s “True Market Mean,” a metric designed to estimate the average cost basis of active investors by excluding lost and dormant coins, reveals that the average active holder is presently underwater.
Since 2016, significant durations beneath the True Market Mean have coincided with bitcoin’s most challenging times, such as the 2018-19 bear market (-57% max drawdown, 282 days) and the 2022-23 decline following the Luna and FTX failures (-56%, 339 days). The two interpretations need not be at odds with each other. A short squeeze driven by negative funding alongside a structural drawdown from underwater holders can indeed coexist, with the former igniting a significant rally that the latter eventually capitalizes on by selling into. The prevailing scenario is likely contingent on the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension beyond the upcoming week. Bitfinex intends to utilize the returned coins for the redemption of all Recovery Right Tokens, while committing at least 80 percent of the remaining net proceeds to the repurchase and burning of its UNUS SED LEO token.