Ki Young Ju believes that institutional capital and exchange-traded funds outside of the US may be responsible for the peak of the current bull cycle in bitcoin. He presented the forecast in an Aug. 27 post on X, identifying international market access as a potential source of demand following the broadening of regulated exposure facilitated by U.S. products. Ju stated, “The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.” He highlighted South Korea as a case study of the obstacles that persist beyond the borders of the United States. He stated that the country lacks a spot bitcoin ETF, retail investors are unable to acquire foreign-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, and the majority of companies still face challenges in establishing exchange accounts to purchase BTC. South Korea has initiated a gradual approach to corporate participation, as outlined in a roadmap by the Financial Services Commission, which targets approximately 3,500 listed companies and qualified professional investors. Financial companies and other corporations continue to be excluded from that framework.
Ju illustrated how widespread retail access could signal the cycle’s peak: “This cycle’s top might be when a banker at a regional bank in Korea recommends a spot bitcoin ETF to a granny for her savings.” The forecast redirects focus from U.S. fund flows to markets where regulated bitcoin investment products are either absent or have restricted availability. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot bitcoin exchange-traded products in January 2024, enabling investors to gain exposure via traditional broking and investment accounts. Ju contends that similar access in other areas could enhance participation in the forthcoming phase of the cycle. Institutional adoption has progressed beyond mere direct bitcoin acquisitions and spot ETF holdings, yet the accessibility and range of service offerings continue to exhibit significant disparities. Strategy’s Bitcoin Banking Adoption Index evaluated 25 prominent institutions in areas such as trading, custody, digital asset products, financing, and corporate engagement. The bank adoption rankings indicated an overall adoption rate of 32%, highlighting significant potential for banks to enhance their digital asset capabilities.
Tokenised real-world assets could serve as an additional element of the financial infrastructure that Ju anticipates will facilitate broader adoption. As of Aug. 29, RWA.xyz’s Global Market Overview indicated that the distributed asset value stood at $38.63 billion, reflecting an increase of 2.65% compared to the previous 30 days. Such products, which are integral to the tokenised RWA market, facilitate the movement of claims on assets, encompassing government securities and private credit, onto blockchain-based systems for issuance, settlement, and transfer. Enhanced stablecoin markets may provide institutions with increased liquidity for trading, settlement, and cross-border transfers as regulated access broadens. The Bank for International Settlements indicated that stablecoins exhibit certain potential for expedited, programmable payments, while cautioning that existing designs may pose risks to financial integrity, liquidity, and monetary stability. Its assessment indicates that the expansion of on-chain financial infrastructure does not mitigate regulatory or operational concerns.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply limit and decentralised settlement stand apart from the regulated funds and tokenised financial rails that facilitate investor access. Expanded ETF distribution may enhance access to bitcoin while maintaining the integrity of the network’s underlying design. Ju anticipates that both investment access and supporting infrastructure will extend beyond the U.S. market. His characterisation aligns with the swift adoption of bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., as spot funds have garnered approximately $57 billion in net inflows within their initial two years. “So far this has been a US adoption story, but the next phase is global institutionalization with deeper stablecoin liquidity and RWA rails,” Ju noted, adding “More institutions will hold BTC as a strategic asset, and access will improve in the many countries that still lack ETFs.”
