Bitcoin price fell to an intraday low of around $58,000 Thursday morning before making a partial recovery, as the bear market that commenced after October’s peak continues without evident signs of fatigue — and a significant long-term valuation model seems to have faltered for the first time ever. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap was trading around $59,315 as of mid-morning Thursday, down more than 3% on the day and roughly 53% below its October 6, 2025 all-time high of $126,198. Bitcoin price surged to a peak of $61,868 in the early hours, but was quickly met with selling pressure that caused a rapid decline in value within minutes.
Thursday’s flash crash came on the heels of an already challenging 24 hours. On Wednesday, Bitcoin traded below $60,000 for a period at the lower support trendline of the Bitcoin Power Law — a long-term valuation model popularised by physicist Giovanni Santostasi that plots price against time on a logarithmic scale and has historically encompassed all of Bitcoin’s price action for over a decade. Observers monitoring the model have pointed out that although Bitcoin has approached the lower boundary during previous market disruptions — particularly during the March 2020 COVID crash and the FTX collapse in November 2022 — a consistent close beneath the support band had not been recorded until this week. The bitcoin price support trendline, which drifts upward roughly 0.093% per day as Bitcoin’s network matures, was positioned in the low $60,000s at the time of the breakdown.
Thursday’s intraday dip to the $58,000s resulted in prices moving further below that level, exacerbating the historic deviation. Whether the breach signifies a fundamental flaw in the model — or merely a short-term deviation that will eventually correct itself in an upward direction — remains a topic of discussion. Historically, the Power Law Oscillator reaching extreme lows has often been a precursor to substantial recoveries. The macro backdrop influencing the selloff over the past couple of months is thoroughly documented. In recent weeks, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant outflows, totalling in the billions. Strategy has liquidated its Bitcoin holdings for the first time in four years, causing a stir in institutional confidence.
Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have driven oil prices upward, reigniting concerns about inflation and leading some officials at the Federal Reserve to consider the prospect of increasing interest rates instead of reducing them. Capital rotation out of crypto and into AI-related equities has intensified the pressure, as investors pursue a distinctly different technology narrative. With Bitcoin price now positioned more than 50% beneath its all-time high and the Power Law model entering uncharted territory, bulls encounter a pivotal challenge as bears evidently dominate the market.