Bitcoin traded around $63,000 on Monday, recovering from a two-month low reached on June 5. A mix of challenges — spot ETF outflows, macro uncertainty, and capital rotation into artificial intelligence stocks — has driven the world’s largest cryptocurrency approximately 50% below its all-time high of $126,279, which was achieved in October 2025. The decline has triggered familiar scenes of capitulation. Retail investors have predominantly retreated, while mainstream headlines have embraced the prevailing fear. However, an increasing number of institutional voices are strongly opposing this trend. In a report released on Monday, analysts stated that Bitcoin’s long-term “store of value” thesis remains intact. This comes despite a notable decline in net inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury companies, which have dropped to $12 billion so far in 2026, a significant decrease from $60 billion in 2025. The firm pointed out that the majority of the selling pressure was not coming from ETF holders, but rather from corporate treasury companies liquidating their positions.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs have seen only around $2.6 billion in net outflows year-to-date. “Bitcoin being boring this cycle should not be held against it,” Bernstein wrote, adding that the slowdown in retail momentum does not undermine the structural ownership case for Bitcoin. The brokerage’s report highlighted that 61% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved in more than a year — a figure that points to a base of holders unwilling to sell at current prices. Bernstein has upheld a price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin by 2026, pointing to a significant structural shift in the investor base towards institutions such as wealth management platforms, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds. The firm has previously characterised early 2026 as showcasing the “weakest bear case” in Bitcoin’s history, asserting that increasing adoption among banks and major investment firms distinguishes the current downturn from earlier crypto winters.
Institutions are increasingly accumulating Bitcoin, while retail investors seem to be rotating away from it. The immediate factors influencing price fluctuations are clearly identifiable. Capital has shifted at an unprecedented rate toward the AI sector, with hundreds of billions pouring into hyperscalers and large-cap technology companies in recent months. The SpaceX IPO, scheduled for June 12 on Nasdaq and aiming for a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, has captured considerable retail interest, diverting attention from digital assets, as noted by analysts monitoring the shift in investment focus. Strategy’s Bitcoin sales have introduced additional selling pressure to the market. On the legislative front, the CLARITY Act — a comprehensive digital asset market structure bill that would divide regulatory authority between the SEC and the CFTC — successfully passed the Senate Banking Committee in May with a 15-9 vote.
The bill successfully navigated through the House last July, securing a decisive 294-134 vote in favour of its passage. Its final passage into law could bring an end to years of regulatory uncertainty that has kept institutional capital on the sidelines of the market. Brownstone Research senior crypto analyst Ben Lilly highlighted a striking similarity to the bear market of 2022, noting that BlackRock introduced a private Bitcoin trust in August during the market’s lowest point. This strategic move came just before the record-breaking launch of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, which amassed $80 billion in assets under management at an unprecedented pace, achieving this milestone five times quicker than the former record holder, Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF. The same playbook, Lilly argued, is running again: institutions are building while retail checks out.