Bitcoin is exhibiting indications of stabilisation following a challenging period, and research firm K33 asserts that the on-chain evidence is compelling. In its latest market report, Vetle Lunde highlighted a record proportion of Bitcoin supply retained by long-term holders — a metric that, historically, has signalled the conclusion of every significant bear market in Bitcoin’s history. Long-term holders currently command 79% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, marking an unprecedented peak that K33 attributes to an ongoing accumulation trend and a gradual transition towards a more favourable market landscape. That figure holds significance not merely as an isolated data point, but as an integral component of a larger trend: in each previous Bitcoin bear market, the circulating supply has shifted toward long-term holders as the market neared its lowest point. The data on old coin reactivation reinforces the overall narrative. As of June 6, only 218,421 BTC that had been dormant for two years or more were reactivated in 2026, marking a near-historic low.
The only year with lower reactivation by the same date was 2012, when 70,600 BTC had been reactivated. The contrast with 2024 is stark: 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated by June 6 of that year, reflecting the heavy distribution that characterised the peak of the previous cycle. Lunde characterises the prevailing market conditions as a scenario in which long-term investors exhibit reduced incentive to divest, while steadfast purchasers are taking in any available supply that enters the marketplace. Additional on-chain and market-structure indicators support that thesis.Outflows from exchange-traded funds, which have been a significant contributor to selling pressure in recent weeks, have shown signs of moderation. Trading volume has diminished to annual lows, a trend that K33 correlates with the concluding phases of Bitcoin bear markets rather than the onset of new selling cycles.
Last week, Lunde observed that 50% of BTC’s circulating supply is currently underwater, a threshold that has historically been attained only within weeks of significant bear market bottoms — although it is frequently accompanied by one final decline before a reversal. Not all analysts exhibit the same cautious optimism as K33. Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have each indicated that ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand have not yet attained levels that would suggest a sustainable reversal. Some forecasts suggest Bitcoin could decline to $30,000 before any significant recovery occurs. Macro conditions introduce an additional layer of uncertainty as we approach the week ahead. Today’s FOMC meeting — the inaugural session under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — has garnered significant scrutiny from the cryptocurrency market.
Rates are anticipated to remain stable, although markets continue to factor in the potential for increases later in 2026. With Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 at approximately 0.6, any alteration in the Federal Reserve’s stance could provoke a pronounced response in BTC, given that the asset typically exhibits heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors in bear market scenarios. Against that backdrop, BTC posted a 5.5% gain over the past week, recovering from two consecutive weeks of double-digit losses to trade near the $65,000 region as of this morning, June 17. Month-over-month, the price has decreased by approximately 16% from a level close to $79,000 in mid-May, and it is currently trading nearly 40% below its all-time high of $126,198, which was achieved in October 2025.