Following a robust rally in April that saw Bitcoin prices reach a three-month peak of $80,020, profit-taking has surged, as indicated. On May 8, investors reportedly realized 14,600 BTC in profits, amounting to $1.1 billion. This event marks the largest single day of profit-taking since December 2025, when BTC was trading above $90,000. Julio Moreno highlighted that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio — a crucial metric for evaluating profit-taking among wallets that have held BTC for less than 155 days—has surged above 1. This level signifies “clear profit-taking territory.” In light of recent developments, Moreno pointed out that demand has not matched the selling pressure, resulting in a bearish market structure for Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin holders are realizing more than 20,000 BTC in net profits on a 30-day rolling basis,” Moreno said. This marks the first net-positive reading since December 2025, coming after substantial losses earlier this year, where net realized losses plummeted to as much as 398,000 BTC in February and March. Historically, spikes in realized profits during bear markets frequently signal local price tops or phases of sideways movement. This trend may unfold in this context, particularly as the overall market sentiment continues to show division. Last week, on-chain and derivatives indicators suggested a possible move towards $85,000. However, the ongoing wave of profit-taking may dampen momentum, especially if new demand fails to emerge. Compounding the uncertainty, inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have shown inconsistency.
Earlier this week, $1 billion flowed into ETFs, but Friday experienced an outflow of $268.5 million, as reported. The mixed flow indicates that investors could be hedging their bets during this rally. Bitcoin’s April rally, which laid the groundwork for the ongoing profit-taking, witnessed the cryptocurrency surge around 50% from $20,000 to surpass $30,000. The surge was driven by a confluence of factors, notably the collapse of several U.S. banks such as Silvergate and First Republic, prompting investors to flock to Bitcoin as a perceived safe haven. Furthermore, developments such as Bitcoin Ordinals have sparked a resurgence of interest in the network, despite the persistent weakness in underlying spot demand. Market observers are expressing concerns that the rally appears to be primarily speculative, with leveraged futures taking precedence over spot purchases in terms of activity. This introduces the potential for a more significant correction should momentum wane. The near-term outlook for Bitcoin is shrouded in uncertainty.
Early investor Michael Terpin has forecasted that BTC might hit a low of approximately $57,000 later this year, but he has warned that a rebound to $100,000 is “unlikely” by 2026. At this moment, traders are keenly observing whether BTC can sustain its present levels or if profit-taking will escalate, driving prices downwards. As of May 8, Bitcoin is trading just above $80,000, indicating that the market is at a pivotal moment. If demand strengthens, the $85,000 level suggested by last week’s data could become a reality. However, in the absence of new inflows, the recent rally could be fleeting.