Bitcoin traded at $70,981 on Thursday, down 0.5% over 24 hours but still up 6.1% on the week, as the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that triggered Tuesday’s broad rally began showing cracks less than 48 hours after it was announced. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that three clauses of the ceasefire proposal were violated, though he did not specify which ones. Israeli attacks persisted in Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane that was expected to be the focal point of the agreement, continues to be largely inaccessible, with only a limited number of tankers navigating through, despite Iran’s commitment to facilitate “coordinated” transit.
Brent crude saw a resurgence of 2%, climbing to approximately $97 following Wednesday’s dramatic drop of over 10%, marking its steepest single-day decline in six years. The reversal highlights the rapid shift in the market’s sentiment, transitioning from a state of pricing in peace to grappling with uncertainty regarding the durability of the ceasefire, not just over the weekend but for the entire two-week period. Ether experienced a decline of 2.6%, settling at $2,180, following its role in spearheading the ceasefire rally with a notable 5.2% weekly gain. Solana’s SOL experienced a decline of 3.1%, settling at $81.96, while XRP saw a 3% drop to $1.33. Meanwhile, dogecoin fell by 3.4%, now priced at $0.091. BNB remained stable at $600, experiencing a decline of 2.2%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index experienced a decline of 0.9%, with two stocks dropping for every one that gained, following a significant surge on Wednesday fueled by ceasefire optimism, marking the largest increase in a year. S&P 500 and European futures indicated a 0.2% drop, suggesting that the four-day rally for global equities was nearing its conclusion. Treasuries remained stable after reversing an earlier rally, as worries about rising oil prices potentially contributing to inflation took center stage. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is emphasizing the potential for rising inflation risks while labor conditions show signs of weakening, thus maintaining the narrative of prolonged higher interest rates. Japan’s wage growth has reached multi-decade highs, bolstering expectations for additional rate hikes.
The interplay of these factors has led one analyst to characterize the situation as “uncoordinated tightening” among key economies, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties that hinder any reliable foundation for rate expectations. Bitcoin’s ascent from $67,000 to $72,700 following the ceasefire, along with its ability to maintain levels above $70,000 despite Thursday’s fluctuations, marks the most positive price movement observed since the onset of the conflict six weeks prior. The $65,000 to $73,000 range that has encapsulated every movement since late February remains intact, with bitcoin now probing the upper half instead of merely hovering at the bottom.