Bitcoin remains above the crucial short-term holder cost basis of approximately $111,000. However, recent report highlights increasing challenges that may put this vital support level to the test in the upcoming sessions. The on-chain analytics firm’s Week 9 Market Pulse, released February 23, 2026, highlights a significant change in market dynamics: there has been a marked increase in selling pressure alongside a decline in trading volume. This combination often signals the onset of volatile price movements. The short-term holder realised price—essentially the average buy-in for investors holding BTC less than 155 days—has historically served as a bull market floor. When the price maintains its position above this level, newer buyers continue to see profits, reducing their motivation to engage in panic selling. Fall beneath that threshold, and the dynamics shift rapidly.
According to the source, the market has transitioned “from a strong buyer’s market towards a more balanced playing field. Translation: the easy money from recent momentum may be drying up.” The report underscores troubling indicators emerging from the ETF market. Capital inflows have seen a significant decline, and unrealised gains for ETF holders have contracted. This indicates that institutional players are adopting a wait-and-see strategy instead of actively increasing their exposure at the present levels. Meanwhile, the derivatives landscape reveals traders strategically hedging their positions. Options activity has surged—usually indicative of uncertainty rather than strong conviction. Long positioning has seen a slight uptick, yet it describes the prevailing sentiment as “cautious optimism” instead of outright bullishness.
Not everything appears to be in a downward trend. On-chain user engagement has indeed seen an uptick, indicating a real interest in the network that transcends mere speculation. Transaction pressure has eased, indicating a potential reflection of cautious sentiment making its way into actual usage patterns. The volume decline highlighted warrants scrutiny. Price fluctuations in a market with low liquidity are often less dependable and can lead to sudden reversals. Traders need to keep an eye on whether volume increases with any directional break from the current $111K range. The $111,000 zone stands as the current focal point of contention. A decisive break below the short-term holder cost basis could potentially ignite a sentiment shift, as highlighted, transitioning from mild anxiety to active selling among recent buyers.
On the flip side, an increase in volume during a price surge would indicate that the consolidation is gathering momentum instead of running out of steam. As institutional flows show signs of cooling and derivatives traders are opting for hedging instead of aggressive betting, the onus is now on the bulls to prove that this current pause signifies accumulation rather than distribution.