The founder of CryptoQuant has stated that Bitcoin is currently not “pumpable” due to the divergence observed between the Market Cap and Realized Cap. In a recent update on X, Ki Young Ju discussed the contrasting growth trajectories of the BTC Market Cap and Realized Cap over the last year. The Market Cap represents the total value of the cryptocurrency’s supply at the current spot price. The Realized Cap serves as a model for assessing BTC’s total valuation, yet it employs a more complex methodology. This on-chain capitalization model posits that the ‘real’ value of any circulating coin corresponds to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.
The Realized Cap essentially represents the total amount that Bitcoin investors collectively have invested in the cryptocurrency. Conversely, the Market Cap signifies the value they currently possess. Typically, fluctuations in the former, often viewed as capital inflows or outflows, lead to alterations in the latter. Here’s a chart illustrating the Market Cap’s response to the variations in the Realized Cap. The graph illustrates that in mid-2025, the growth rate difference between Bitcoin’s Market Cap and Realized Cap was positive, indicating that the Market Cap was increasing at a faster pace than the Realized Cap. In the last quarter of the year, a notable shift occurred, with the indicator plunging into negative territory as the market experienced a significant crash.
The year 2026 has witnessed a further decline in the metric, as the cryptocurrency price continues to fall. “Bitcoin is not pumpable right now,” stated Young Ju. The founder has highlighted the differences in market dynamics between 2024 and 2025 to illustrate his argument. In 2024, a $10 billion increase in the Realized Cap triggered a $26 billion surge in the Market Cap. Throughout 2025, an astonishing $308 billion in capital was injected into the asset, but the Market Cap surprisingly decreased by $98 billion. “Selling pressure is too heavy for any multiplier effect,” the analyst stated.
In other developments, new whales on the Bitcoin network have been capitulating lately, as highlighted by analyst Maartunn in a post on X. “New Whales” refer to investors who have recently entered the market in the last 155 days and currently hold over 1,000 BTC in their wallets. Amid the latest price downturn, this group experienced significant losses, highlighted by a staggering loss spike of $1.46 billion on February 5th. As of now, Bitcoin is hovering near $68,500, experiencing a decline of more than 12% over the past week.