Bitcoin’s price surged over 7% Yesterday, breaking past the $69,000 mark and marking one of its most significant daily gains amid months of market sell-offs. The rally follows several weeks of limited trading, aligning with multiple price-related and miner-associated signals suggesting fatigue in the recent decline. The price of bitcoin saw a notable decrease, falling nearly 50% from its early-October high of about $125,000 to a low of around $60,000 in February. The recent decline has pushed bitcoin below its estimated average production cost for the first time since late 2022, a threshold that has often aligned with late-stage selling and price stabilization.
Recent estimates indicate that average production costs hover around $66,000, suggesting that the market has been pricing bitcoin below the threshold necessary for many miners to maintain cash-flow neutrality for several weeks now. The rise above $69,000 shifts focus to the price framework. Bitcoin has bounced back from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near $62,000, a point that aligns with earlier daily support, according to data. Buyers consistently maintained that area over multiple sessions before the increase in the bitcoin price. The rally from that base emerged with rising volume, suggesting fresh involvement instead of merely short covering.
The price of Bitcoin has reverted to the levels seen during much of January. The upcoming area of interest is positioned near the point of control in the mid-$70,000s, where trading activity was concentrated before the decline. A reclaim of that zone would place bitcoin above its volume-weighted center and reset the near-term structure. Not addressing this would keep the price stuck in a range, despite the recent bounce. Although analyzing data offers important insights, it is the value that continues to be the main influence. The Hash Ribbon, an important indicator of short- and medium-term hash rate trends, is approaching a recovery signal after almost three months of strain on miners. This period is notable for being one of the longest instances of surrender recorded in history. During these times, miners often sell off their holdings to cover operational costs, leading to a steady influx into the market. As the hash rate begins to recover, the strain from compelled selling usually diminishes.
Since 2011, there have been around 20 occurrences where comparable mining stress events have aligned with local or significant bitcoin lows, particularly in early 2015, late 2018, and late 2022. In each case, the price established a steady state before the trend direction was determined. However, those signals work best when considered as context instead of timing tools. Despite the recent rally, bitcoin is facing considerable resistance. On-chain data shows that a considerable amount of the supply continues to be retained at a loss. Today, assets associated with crypto experienced a significant rally alongside Bitcoin’s resurgence. Coinbase experienced a notable surge of over 13%, while Strategy climbed more than 8%, and Robinhood saw an increase exceeding 6%.