According to Geoff Kendrick, Bitcoin faces the potential for deeper losses as risk appetite diminishes and macroeconomic pressures intensify. In a note, Kendrick indicated that diminishing U.S. economic momentum and lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have impacted crypto markets. He noted that declining digital-asset ETF holdings have eliminated a crucial source of demand. Kendrick cautioned that bitcoin might decline to $50,000, while Ethereum could dip toward $1,400 before finding stability later in the year. BTC is currently trading at approximately $67,869, following a dip to a 16-month low of $60,008 just last week.
Standard Chartered has revised its year-end bitcoin forecast, slashing its 2026 target by a third to $100,000, down from the previous estimate of $150,000. The bank pointed to worsening macroeconomic conditions and the potential for additional investor capitulation. Bitcoin has experienced a significant correction, plummeting by as much as 50% from its record high in October 2025, marking its lowest close on February 5. It is reported that only 50% of the Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, marking a significant drop, although not as drastic as in previous bear cycles. The bank highlighted an unsupportive interest-rate environment as a significant challenge.
Markets have recalibrated their expectations regarding Fed easing, with investors now anticipating the first cut to occur later in the year. Kendrick noted that the ambiguity surrounding future Fed leadership has contributed to a sense of caution. ETF flows continue to raise concerns. Standard Chartered has reported that bitcoin ETF holdings have decreased by nearly 100,000 BTC since reaching their peak in October 2025. With an average purchase price hovering around $90,000, a significant number of ETF investors are currently facing unrealized losses, which could potentially lead to increased selling pressure in the market. Despite the recent downgrade in the short term, the bank continues to hold a positive perspective for the longer term. Kendrick highlighted that on-chain usage data is showing consistent improvement, and the current downturn has not led to significant platform failures, in contrast to the 2022 cycle which experienced collapses like Terra/Luna and FTX.
In December of the previous year, Standard Chartered revised its projections, anticipating Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2025 and $150,000 by the end of 2026, while maintaining a long-term target of $500,000 set for 2030. Bitcoin failed to reach the $100,000 mark by the conclusion of 2025. The bank pointed to diminishing corporate treasury demand and a slowdown in ETF flows during that period. Geoffrey Kendrick stated that corporate accumulation has “run its course,” positioning ETF inflows as the primary catalyst.