Bitcoin is currently maneuvering through a tough market environment, marked by a delicate range and considerable overhead supply. The cryptocurrency’s price has encountered resistance close to $93,000, while support has been pinpointed around $81,000, establishing a critical battleground characterized by these significant levels, as reported. Bitcoin’s present trading range indicates a structurally delicate market, with significant supply between $93,000 and $120,000 hindering recovery efforts. The failure to recover essential levels, including the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500, persists in limiting upward momentum.
In the face of sell pressure, steadfast buyer demand has successfully upheld the True Market Mean around $81,300, averting a more significant market decline. The supply in loss has surged to 6.7 million BTC, marking the highest level seen in this cycle, indicative of growing investor frustration. This pattern reflects the early transitional phases of past cycles, where heightened loss realization frequently came before more significant bearish conditions. These dynamics underscore the fragile balance between sellers pressing overhead supply and buyers defending key structural support.
The spot market is exhibiting selective demand, characterized by intermittent surges in buy-side activity that have yet to result in any meaningful accumulation. Corporate treasury flows exhibit episodic patterns, leading to volatility while failing to deliver consistent structural support. Futures markets are witnessing a decline in open interest, suggesting a decrease in speculative conviction instead of forced deleveraging. This behavior points to caution rather than capitulation among leveraged participants.
Options markets continue to underscore the range-bound regime, as front-end volatility compresses while downside risk is both priced and stable. Large December expiries are influencing price action, indicating that a notable change will necessitate either seller fatigue or a fresh wave of liquidity. Bitcoin remains confined within a tight range, with structural support near $81,000 and persistent sell pressure above, implying that any meaningful breakout will depend on reduced overhead supply above $95,000 or a renewed influx of liquidity capable of restoring key cost-basis levels.