Latest forecast suggests that the bitcoin price may surge to $143,000 next year, driven by ongoing adoption via exchange-traded funds and a more favorable regulatory environment in the U.S., which is expected to attract new capital into the market. Analysts have established a base-case target of $143,000 for the bitcoin price within the next 12 months. MarketWatch reports that they have outlined a bullish scenario projecting the price to exceed $189,000, while their bearish case anticipates a decline in the bitcoin price to approximately $78,500 should macroeconomic conditions worsen. On Friday, the bitcoin price hovered around $88,000, reflecting a decline of approximately 30% from its peak in late October. The recent pullback came on the heels of a significant wave of selling following this year’s earlier rally. However, Citi has observed that outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have shown signs of moderation in the past few weeks.
“Our forecasts, in particular for bitcoin, rest on an assumption that investor adoption continues with flows into ETFs of $15 billion boosting token prices,” the analysts stated. The note was spearheaded by Alex Saunders. December 19, 2025 Citi highlighted the prospect of regulatory clarity in the United States as a significant factor influencing future demand. The U.S. Senate is currently in discussions to craft its own iteration of the Clarity Act, a piece of legislation that aims to bring bitcoin under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Analysts indicated that more defined regulations might promote wider involvement from institutional investors. The bank’s pessimistic outlook anticipates recessionary pressures and a diminished appetite for risk assets.
In November, the bitcoin price experienced a decline, reaching multi-month lows as worries about elevated technology valuations and overarching macroeconomic risks impacted the markets. The cryptocurrency experienced a decline exceeding $18,000 that month, representing its most significant dollar drop since May 2021, driven by substantial investor withdrawals. Banks are embracing bitcoin. Two weeks ago, the Bank of America advised its wealth management clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to digital assets, indicating a significant change in its stance on Bitcoin exposure. The initiative enabled more than 15,000 advisers from Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, and Merrill Edge to actively suggest crypto investments to their clients. Last week, PNC Bank introduced direct spot bitcoin trading for eligible Private Bank clients, enabling them to buy, hold, and sell bitcoin directly through its own digital banking platform, eliminating the need for an external exchange. Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service infrastructure drove the move.
Bitcoin’s recent sell-off highlights a market entrenched in consolidation, as positive macro catalysts struggle to yield lasting gains. Following a brief spike to $89,000 fueled by better-than-anticipated U.S. inflation figures, bitcoin has retreated towards the $84,000 mark, continuing a correction that is now entering its second month. The trend is increasingly recognizable: intense, data-fueled surges are met with swift pullbacks as sellers maintain their stance against resistance beneath the $90,000 mark. Macro signals present a blend of support. November CPI has cooled to 2.7% year over year, while core inflation stands at 2.6%, bolstering the argument for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The backdrop played a crucial role in igniting the intraday rally. Rising U.S. unemployment and uneven job growth are complicating the outlook, reinforcing expectations for a cautious approach from the Fed. Markets seem hesitant to factor in significant easing measures. A significant hurdle continues to be U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have transitioned from steady inflows to experiencing net redemptions. The outflows eliminate a stabilizing bid that once absorbed sell pressure, complicating the sustainability of breakouts even in the face of positive news. The bitcoin price is currently exhibiting a range-bound behavior. Resistance is positioned just under $90,000, whereas support around $84,000 is showing signs of weakness. A decisive break lower could pave the way for a move toward the $72,000–$68,000 zone, where analysts anticipate stronger demand. Extreme fear readings indicate a possible undervaluation, yet the short-term momentum continues to lean towards sellers.