Bitcoin bulls are adjusting their near-term price targets following the recent market pullback. Their longer-term outlook remains intact. Standard Chartered has reduced its Bitcoin forecasts by half in a note. The bank has adjusted its forecast for Bitcoin, now predicting it will hit $100,000 by the end of 2025, a decrease from the previous estimate of $200,000, and anticipates a price of $150,000 by the end of 2026. The long-term target of $500,000 is still intact, although the timeline has been extended to 2030 from the previous 2028. The downgrade signals a change in demand dynamics. Corporate treasury buying, which was previously a significant catalyst, has diminished. Exchange-traded fund flows have experienced a deceleration. Geoffrey Kendrick said aggressive corporate accumulation has “run its course.”
“Future price gains will be driven by one leg only,” Kendrick stated, pointing to ETF inflows. He anticipates consolidation instead of widespread selling. Bernstein analysts conveyed a comparable sentiment. According to the sources, the forecast for Bitcoin stands at $150,000 by the end of next year, with projections nearing $200,000 by late 2027. The firm has retracted its prediction of a $200,000 peak for this year, asserting that Bitcoin is no longer constrained by its historical four-year cycle. Experts indicate that the involvement of institutional investors has contributed to the market’s resilience. The adjustments come after a challenging period for prices. Bitcoin has experienced a decline of nearly 30% from its peak in October, which was above $126,000. On Monday, Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows totaling $60 million.
In November, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust experienced a significant setback, with approximately $2.3 billion in redemptions, marking its largest monthly outflow since inception. Those outflows represent about 3% of the fund’s assets. Bernstein highlights that total ETF withdrawals are still under 5% of assets under management. Retail investors continue to dominate the ETF landscape, maintaining a majority of shares, while institutional ownership has seen an uptick, now sitting at 28%. In a surprising turn of events, Bitcoin surged over 4% today, approaching $94,640. This rally has propelled the market capitalization to approximately $1.86 trillion, with trading volume increasing to $46 billion, marking a seven-day high in prices. Institutional momentum surged as Twenty One celebrated the NYSE opening bell, proudly holding over 43,500 BTC.
Meanwhile, PNC made headlines as the first major U.S. bank to provide direct spot bitcoin trading for private clients, and Bank of America took a step forward by advocating for limited digital asset allocations. Investors are closely analyzing favorable macro signals, including anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and insights indicating that Bitcoin’s cycle lows might have already been reached.