The beginning of Q4 2025 brought a wave of optimism, with the much-anticipated ‘Uptober’ poised to deliver fresh gains and significant rallies. Indeed, it occurred, at least for the initial week or so. Bitcoin has surged to a remarkable new all-time high, surpassing $126,000. However, things took a drastic turn in the days that followed, particularly after the October 10 crash, which resulted in over $19 billion in liquidations impacting overleveraged traders. Nothing has truly returned to normal since that disaster, which continues to be referenced as the onset of the decline.
The cryptocurrency has experienced a significant drop of over 30% since that time and currently faces challenges below the $90,000 mark, which has emerged as a formidable resistance level. Analysts are largely in agreement that the bear market has officially commenced, and the pressing question now revolves around when the BTC bottom will be reached. Clearly, analysts have varying perspectives on this matter, with predicting that BTC will decline to approximately $40,000 by the third quarter of 2026. Analysis was grounded in the cycle top and bottom theory. As previously reported, bitcoin tends to hit a cycle top exactly 1,064 days after its last bottom, a pattern observed during the bull market from January 2015 to December 2017, and again from December 2018 to the November 2021 rally. Notably, the early October 2025 ATH occurred after a span of 1,064 days.
As a result, Martinez concluded that the bear market commenced on that historic date, paving the way for the ensuing long-term correction. He pointed out that these cycles extend for 364 days (or nearly a full year), with the anticipated bottom projected around October 2026. In a continuation of the historical analysis, Martinez emphasized that BTC experienced a significant drop of 84% in the 2017-2018 bear market and a decline of 77% in the 2021-2022 period. By averaging that figure to approximately 80%, we can anticipate that the next market bottom may lead to the cryptocurrency declining to about $37,500.
Although this may seem alarming right now, it’s important to highlight that this forecast is grounded in the widely recognized 4-year cycle theory. However, numerous analysts have asserted over the past few months that BTC has broken free from previous patterns and now operates under a new set of dynamics, influenced by its institutional adoption, ETF products, DATs, and government support.