Bitcoin price is exhibiting unmistakable signs of weakness, and the recent drop back below six figures has necessitated a reevaluation of the near-term outlook. With several critical technical and on-chain levels now breached, I have adjusted my base case, indicating that the likelihood of revisiting new all-time highs in the upcoming weeks has dropped below 50%. The situation could pivot rapidly if significant levels are regained, but for now, the landscape appears to be transitioning from a phase of trending strength to one characterized by a more pronounced corrective movement.
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a significant pullback, yet purchasing during every decline may not be the best strategy unless a confirmed bull trend is in place. In a bear market, what may seem like appealing dips can ultimately result in even lower price points. In downtrending markets, it’s common to see short-term rallies followed by sharp retracements.
Therefore, it’s crucial to respond to data instead of trying to predict a bottom in advance. The Short-Term Holder Realized Price chart from the last cycle clearly shows this pattern of multiple dips. This metric clearly served as a crucial resistance during this phase, with a sustained recovery only occurring after BTC reclaimed the STH Realized Price levels.