Bitcoin price dipped below $104,000 today after a brief rise above $106,000 at the beginning of the week, as traders assessed a combination of macro tailwinds and technical challenges — notably President Donald Trump’s proposal to distribute $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks to Americans. The policy, revealed on Sunday via Truth Social, aims to provide a cash rebate to the majority of Americans, financed by unprecedented tariff revenues. The president stated that the initiative would yield “trillions of dollars” gathered from trade tariffs and ultimately assist in reducing the country’s $37 trillion debt. Markets are interpreting it as a new liquidity boost — reminiscent of the 2025 reboot of the 2020-era stimulus that played a crucial role in sparking Bitcoin’s previous bull run. Crypto traders swiftly started making comparisons. “Rate cuts, record highs, AI, and stimulus checks — buckle up,” analysts stated, as various Bitcoin commentators humorously noted that the “free Bitcoin” era had made a comeback. As of now, the price of Bitcoin stands at $103,459.
Senate Democrats, in a surprising move, teamed up with Republicans to pass a funding measure aimed at reopening the federal government. This decision came even without the desired extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. The measure, which saw a 60-40 vote, is now on its way to the House, where it is expected to pass smoothly. The anticipated agreement, set to be endorsed by President Trump, aims to conclude a 41-day shutdown, reinstating federal services and compensating workers. However, it has ignited internal discussions among Democrats. The timing is crucial as Bitcoin’s price technical structure teeters on the edge between recovery and resistance. The $99,000 level, bolstered by the 55-week exponential moving average, remains a robust support floor.
On the upside, Fibonacci resistance is positioned at $109,400, while a more significant barrier looms around $111,000. A break above $116,000 could signal a renewed push toward $129,000 — the peak of Bitcoin price’s broadening wedge pattern. Institutional interest continues to be robust. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, revealed a $49.9 million acquisition of 487 BTC last week, increasing its total holdings to over 641,000 coins valued at approximately $47.5 billion. Macro conditions are providing additional backing. Optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the U.S. government shutdown has lifted risk assets, with the strength of the Nasdaq influencing the crypto markets. However, ongoing dysfunction in Washington may impact market sentiment, potentially driving Bitcoin down to lower support levels at $96,000 or even $93,000 should volatility make a comeback.
Underneath the price movements, the dynamics of derivatives and ETF inflows are persistently influencing the direction of Bitcoin’s value. A widening futures premium generally leads to a withdrawal of coins from exchanges, tightening supply. Conversely, a compressed basis and negative funding can result in the unwinding of positions, putting pressure on spot prices. The current basis remains around 5–5.5%, which sustains carry trades but is vulnerable to fluctuations in collateral conditions or ETF outflows. Following the outflow of nearly $1 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in early November, traders are closely monitoring for a potential directional shift that could alter hedging flows and impact spot liquidity. Amidst the short-term uncertainty, the underlying structural signals continue to indicate a bullish trend. With production costs on the rise and an increasing number of long-term holders, indications point to the possibility that the upcoming bear market could be less severe than those seen in prior cycles. As only 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply remains to be mined ahead of the 2028 halving, the tightening scarcity coincides with a potential resurgence in macro liquidity.