Bitcoin price has continued its downward trend, falling to $105,200 today after a tumultuous beginning to November and marking the end of an impressive seven-year “Uptober” streak. Following a 4% drop in October — marking the first negative October since 2018 — Bitcoin is now encountering heightened selling pressure due to stricter financial conditions, wary institutional flows, and overarching macroeconomic challenges. The recent correction comes on the heels of an early-October flash crash that saw Bitcoin plummet to $104,000, erasing a significant portion of its Q3 momentum. Despite a partial recovery, BTC is still hovering around 14% below its recent peak of approximately $125,000. As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $106,234.
Technical charts indicate that Bitcoin has recently tested three support lows, subsequently sweeping liquidity beneath them. On the daily timeframe, BTC maintained a crucial low within a demand zone, which has historically served as a robust support level. This area has historically ensnared eager sellers prior to a rebound, indicating that BTC might once more discover short-term support in this region. Focusing on the 15-minute chart, a distinct demand zone is emerging where Bitcoin may respond before executing its next directional shift, possibly aiming for liquidity above the existing highs. Market observers highlight that traders frequently brace for shifts that can catch anxious participants off guard.
Data provides additional clarity regarding Bitcoin’s present standing. The Short-Term Holder Realized Price, indicating the average cost basis for recent buyers, is currently approximately $113,000. Historically, this level has served as a dynamic support zone, laying the groundwork for accumulation and subsequent upward movements. Maintaining a position above this line indicates that short-term players are either at breakeven or enjoying a slight profit, which enhances market confidence. The STH Market Value to Realized Value Ratio underscores potential upside opportunities. By multiplying the current STH Realized Price with historical MVRV thresholds, resistance levels are projected to fall between $160,000 and $200,000, which is consistent with patterns observed in previous cycles.
The Long-Term Holder MVRV metrics support this perspective, indicating diminishing returns while hinting at possible peaks in the range of $163,000 to $165,000. Rolling MVRV frameworks, featuring two-year and 100-day analyses, suggest that BTC remains within an accumulation-friendly range, highlighting optimal entry points for market participants as they prepare for the upcoming bullish phase. Earlier today, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee expressed a positive outlook on Bitcoin, forecasting that it could potentially rise to $150,000–$200,000 by the end of 2025, even in light of the recent market turbulence. He pointed out that the mid-October liquidation event — the largest in crypto history, surpassing even FTX — took place just weeks ago. Earlier today, Strategy revealed its intensified Bitcoin accumulation strategy, acquiring 397 BTC for approximately $45.6 million at an average price of $114,771 per BTC. In a Form 8-K filing dated November 3, 2025, it has been revealed that Strategy currently possesses a total of 641,205 BTC. The aggregate purchase cost stands at $47.49 billion, reflecting an average price of $74,057 per BTC, inclusive of fees and expenses.