Bitcoin has encountered a significant decline in the current cycle, falling 25% from its peak to trade below $94,000, according to the data. The cryptocurrency’s momentum is presently declining in the short term, yet signs indicate that the market could be entering a consolidation phase rather than experiencing a lengthy downturn. BTC is currently positioned below the short-term holders’ cost basis of $111,900 and the -1 standard deviation band at $97,500, continuing to face downside risks until these levels are recovered. Nonetheless, on-chain indicators are beginning to show signs of weariness. The STH Realised Profit-Loss Ratio has fallen under 0.20, indicating that over 80% of coins traded on-chain are being sold at a loss, a threshold that has traditionally pointed to market bottoms. Additionally, the supply of STH in profit has plummeted to 7.6%, reflecting the patterns seen during earlier cycle troughs. While further demand inflows are crucial to confirm a bottom, these indicators suggest that a strong base may be formed soon.
The US nears the end of 2025 in a more favorable macroeconomic environment, having just come out of a 43-day government shutdown that has led to lasting GDP losses estimated between $7 billion and $14 billion, as well as liquidity issues for workers. At first, markets seemed unfazed by the disruption, but quickly, the mood shifted negatively, impacting the S&P 500 as investors reassessed fiscal risks and the chances of a Federal Reserve pause. Business sentiment is exhibiting a decline, as reflected by the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which has decreased in October. This drop is linked to lower sales, reduced profit margins, and persistent labor shortages. Global demand is exhibiting signs of fragility, as evidenced by the Global PMI New Export Orders Index dropping to 48.5, marking its steepest contraction in nearly two years.
In regulatory news, US crypto regulation has seen a significant shift as a bipartisan Senate draft bill proposes moving digital asset oversight from the SEC to the CFTC. This legislation seeks to classify most tokens as “digital commodities,” mandating that exchanges and custodians register within a commodities-style framework. Nonetheless, doubts regarding DeFi and AML regulations continue to linger. Crypto is making strides in the entertainment sector, as TKO Group Holdings, the parent company of the UFC, has secured a multiyear agreement with Polymarket. This collaboration will introduce real-time prediction-market data into live events, starting in 2026.
The Czech National Bank has launched a $1 million pilot portfolio featuring Bitcoin, a stablecoin, and a tokenized deposit. This signifies the institution’s initial direct engagement with digital assets, highlighting the growing fascination with blockchain-driven financial systems.