Bitcoin’s recent surge past $90,000 is fueled by short covering and dip buying, as market participants anticipate a rate cut in December, shaping trading strategies. Prediction markets indicate that Bitcoin is likely to stay around the $92,000 mark throughout November, as ETF outflows are constraining any upward movement. Gold prices are on the rise, driven by declining interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific markets are displaying a mixed performance, particularly in light of inflation concerns in Tokyo. Bitcoin’s rebound above $90,000 is increasingly perceived as a classic year-end risk reset rather than a crypto-driven surge.
Recent report shows that short covering and dip buying have contributed to stabilizing trading amid rising expectations for a December rate cut. The wider market is dragging crypto in its wake. QCP highlights that inflation remains stubbornly high, labor data shows signs of deterioration, and credit risk is becoming a concern in AI-linked equities, factors that could complicate the ongoing relief rally. ETF outflows continue to pose a challenge, while prediction markets indicate that traders anticipate bitcoin will remain constrained around $92,000 until the month’s conclusion. As volatility has been subdued heading into the US holiday, market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 12. In this environment, cryptocurrencies are being treated more as macro assets, rather than reacting to news specific to the sector. Prediction markets exhibit a similar rangebound sentiment.
Traders on Polymarket are indicating a 74% probability that bitcoin’s weekly high will stay limited around $92,000 until the end of November. The likelihood of reaching $96,000 or above remains in the single digits, consistent with insights from the desk suggesting that any rallies into the mid $90,000s are expected to encounter ETF-related supply. Support is firmly positioned in the $80,000 to $82,000 range following last week’s washout, with crypto trading reflecting the overall market risk appetite instead of being driven by sector-specific developments.
Without a change in macro conditions, the most likely scenario is continued sideways trading. Bitcoin is currently hovering in a narrow range near the low $90,000s, as short covering provides some upward momentum from last week’s lows, yet ETF outflows continue to limit any efforts to rise further. Ether is currently positioned just above $3,000, drawing in some dip buyers; however, it continues to face challenges in gaining momentum following a month of more significant selling compared to bitcoin.