Bitcoin price dropped to new six-month lows, decisively falling below the key $100,000 threshold and exacerbating a sell-off that has erased nearly a quarter of its value in just over a month. By midday, the bitcoin price was hovering between $94,000 and $97,000, marking its lowest point since early May and a significant drop from October’s all-time high of $126,296, as per reports. As of now, bitcoin is trading at $94,850 after rebounding from the $94,000 mark. The decline marks the conclusion of a tumultuous week in global markets, where risk assets, including tech giants and crypto stocks, have plummeted due to dwindling hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Just two weeks ago, traders were factoring in a nearly guaranteed 97% probability of easing. Today, that probability has dropped to around 50%, prompting a wave of deleveraging across both equities and digital assets. The macro pressures represent just a fraction of the overall narrative. The Bitcoin price is currently navigating internal market dynamics that have intensified the downturn. New data reveals that long-term holders have offloaded approximately 815,000 BTC over the last 30 days—marking the most significant sell-off since early 2024. Spot demand has diminished at a critical juncture, with U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing hundreds of millions in daily outflows, which is draining liquidity and exacerbating downside momentum.
The upheaval reaches far beyond the realm of cryptocurrency. Risk-sensitive equities, such as Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, Coinbase, and Bitcoin miners, faced significant declines in this week’s sessions as investors moved away from speculative assets. Growing apprehensions about an AI bubble, coupled with the unpredictability stemming from postponed U.S. economic data after the 43-day government shutdown, have driven the VIX to its peak level since mid-October. Institutional buying has dipped below the daily supply released by miners, creating consistent sell pressure as liquidity continues to tighten. Bitcoin’s price is currently hovering near its closely monitored 365-day moving average, situated around the $100,000 mark. Analysts suggest that this level could play a crucial role in determining whether the ongoing pullback evolves into a more significant correction, as per reports. Researchers highlighted that the drawdown from October’s peak is aligning closely with standard mid-cycle retracements, mirroring the approximately 22% pullbacks observed during the 2023–2025 bull market. Even with the drop below the $100,000 mark for bitcoin, estimates suggest that approximately 72% of all circulating bitcoin is still in profit. This points to the fact that long-term holders continue to enjoy gains, despite a decline in overall sentiment. Other analysts are observing indications that the market could be approaching a bottom.
JPMorgan has calculated that the current production cost of bitcoin, influenced by increasing network difficulty, is approximately $94,000. This figure has historically served as a significant downside anchor. As the price nears that critical threshold, the bank contends that bitcoin’s price-to-cost ratio is returning to historical lows, sustaining a bullish outlook for the next 6 to 12 months with a target of approximately $170,000. However, the dynamics driving this correction extend well beyond the influence of retail traders. Whales, institutions, and leveraged market structures are now the primary forces driving most significant market movements. Single transfers from wallets containing thousands of BTC can significantly influence sentiment across exchanges. According to sources, the recent surge in whale selling of bitcoin is not indicative of panic, but rather reflects typical behavior seen in the late stages of a market cycle. According to sources, long-term holders are increasingly cashing in on their investments, as monthly spending has surged from 12,000 BTC per day in July to approximately 26,000. This trend aligns with typical bull-market distribution rather than indicating a “OG whale exodus.”
The wider context isn’t providing any assistance. The U.S. government has resumed operations after an unprecedented 43-day shutdown, marking the longest in American history, subsequent to President Trump’s late-Wednesday endorsement of a temporary funding measure. The bill stipulates that federal agencies will only receive funding until Jan. 30, which means that uncertainty will persist in the markets, even as operations gradually restart. At press time, bitcoin price is trading at $95,670, hovering near production-cost levels and testing key technical support.