Bitcoin price surged past $111,000 following the release of new U.S. inflation data, which indicated a milder-than-expected rise in consumer prices. This development has bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will proceed with further rate cuts this year. The Consumer Price Index experienced a month-over-month increase of 0.3% in September, falling short of economists’ predictions of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw a modest rise of 0.2%, also below expectations. Year-over-year, both headline and core inflation came in at 3.0%, just under expectations. The release, pushed back by 10 days due to the ongoing government shutdown, stands out as one of the rare significant economic reports to emerge this month. A legal requirement prompted an exception for the Social Security Administration to publish its annual cost-of-living adjustment.
The data reaffirmed market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and another in December, which would bring the policy rate down to a 3.75–4.00% range. On Polymarket, there is a 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut next week. In a notable development, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt expressed approval of Friday’s CPI report, which fell below expectations. However, she cautioned that the current government shutdown might hinder the release of October’s inflation data scheduled for next week. All other economic reports are currently on hold as a result of the shutdown that commenced on October 1.
Treasury yields dipped and the dollar softened after the announcement, while the Nasdaq 100 gained almost 1%. The recent CPI print, which came in softer than expected, has injected new momentum into Bitcoin’s rally that started earlier this week, pushing the asset higher in early trading on Friday. Bitcoin experienced a dip to approximately $107,000 earlier this week, yet analysts continue to uphold a bullish perspective despite the recent fluctuations in the market. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered has forecasted a short-term decline below $100,000, driven by escalating U.S.–China tensions. However, he views this as a prime buying opportunity ahead of a surge toward $200,000 by the end of the year.
A report characterized October’s 18% correction as a liquidity-driven mid-cycle reset, rather than labeling it a bear market. Experts highlighted the normalization of leverage, an uptick in macro demand, and an increase in institutional engagement. VanEck noted that deleveraging has eliminated speculative excess, paving the way for entry opportunities as Bitcoin’s status as a “anti–money printing” asset has intensified. Bitcoin is currently trading approximately 13% lower than its all-time high of around $126,000, which was achieved on October 6, 2025.