According to a recent post by Maartunn, Bitcoin has been experiencing significant adjustments concerning legacy tokens and spot ETFs. Spot ETFs are investment instruments that operate on conventional trading platforms, enabling investors to obtain exposure to an underlying asset such as BTC without the necessity of direct ownership of the asset.
The Bitcoin spot ETFs commenced trading in the United States in January 2024. Since then, the funds have typically experienced growth, punctuated by several instances of notably sharp inflows. The primary appeal of ETFs lies in their ability to allow investors who may not be well-versed in the cryptocurrency landscape to engage with BTC in a manner that suits their preferences. When a trader allocates capital to such a vehicle, the fund acquires an equivalent amount of the cryptocurrency on the client’s behalf. This indicates an on-chain transfer into the wallets linked to the ETF. The chart provided by Maartunn illustrates the trend in the 30-day Bitcoin spot ETF net flow since the beginning of 2024. The graph illustrates that the net flow of the Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced several phases characterized by notably positive values. These inherently align with a significant level of demand for the ETFs.
It is noteworthy that a discernible pattern emerges among these significant waves of inflows. The CDD serves as an on-chain metric that quantifies the aggregate number of coin days that are being “destroyed” in transactions. A coin day represents the amount of time one BTC remains inactive on the blockchain, specifically accumulating after a full day of dormancy. When a token that has been inactive for a certain number of days is transferred, its coin days counter resets to zero. The coin days that it had previously accumulated are reported to be eliminated. Typically, increases in this metric align with actions taken by the steadfast holders within the network. The accumulation of coin days by these HODLers reflects their long-term commitment, and when they eventually decide to act, it results in a significant reduction of coin days. The three significant waves of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs during the Summer of 2024, Fall of 2024, and Summer of 2025 were all correlated with a distribution signal from the CDD.
This indicates a shift of coins from seasoned holders to emerging demand facilitated by these investment vehicles. Following the most recent wave, the ETF netflow has stabilized at a neutral level, indicating that demand has diminished. “ETF inflows are key,” observes Maartunn. “In the absence of robust new demand, the selling pressure from new holders may intensify.”