Bitcoin has recently reached new all-time highs, but numerous prominent Bitcoin treasury companies have been experiencing notable underperformance. Despite Bitcoin recently surpassing $120,000, the share prices of companies like MicroStrategy are still significantly below their highs. Will these companies experience a lasting rebound, or has their time of exceeding expectations already come to an end? Analyzing the list of leading public companies with Bitcoin treasuries shows that 79 firms possess a minimum of 100 BTC, collectively holding nearly a million Bitcoin, which is valued at more than $110 billion.
A significant sum, especially given that most of these companies began their accumulation just a few years ago! Among these, twenty-three companies are recognized as Active Bitcoin Treasury Companies, engaging in financing strategies to enhance their capital for BTC accumulation, collectively holding 723,000 BTC and experiencing rapid growth. It is not surprising that (Micro)Strategy leads this group with the highest allocation of nearly 630,000 BTC. This significant level of institutional accumulation underscores the increasing relevance of Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets. Nevertheless, investors are starting to doubt if the previously remarkable stock performance of these companies can persist. Strategy has been the leading Bitcoin treasury company, yet its stock price has failed to mirror Bitcoin’s recent strength. While BTC surged past 124,000 before its recent retracement, MSTR’s share price has languished to as low as 330 recently, well below its 543 highs. In recent weeks, nearly all of these treasury companies have notably lagged behind Bitcoin. A significant factor is the deceleration in accumulation. While (Micro)Strategy made a large purchase in July 2025, we can observe from their Bitcoin Holdings Over Time that the pace has significantly slowed down compared to its aggressive buying in previous years. Without ongoing and substantial accumulation, investors might be less inclined to pay a premium for shares.
(Micro) Strategy often releases additional shares to generate funds for acquiring Bitcoin. This action boosts overall holdings but diminishes the value for current shareholders and exerts downward pressure on the stock price. Between 2020 and 2025, (Micro)Strategy’s diluted share count increased from approximately 97 million to more than 300 million, highlighting the extent of capital raising for Bitcoin acquisitions. This approach has effectively built substantial BTC reserves, but it has also limited the growth of share prices. Examining the company’s market capitalization instead of its stock price reveals a contrasting perspective. Market capitalization, reflecting outstanding shares, achieved new peaks in July 2025, closely following Bitcoin’s ascent. The share price conveys a more pessimistic narrative due to this significant dilution. The net asset value (NAV) premium, which reflects the additional amount investors are willing to pay for shares relative to their Bitcoin per-share value, has seen a significant decline. Historically, (Micro)Strategy held a notable NAV premium as one of the few avenues for investors to achieve leveraged exposure to Bitcoin.
Currently, with numerous treasury companies and ETFs on the market, the advantage of being the “first mover” has lessened. With an increasing number of companies embracing Bitcoin as a reserve asset, the NAV premium throughout the sector is expected to move closer to one. Treasury Companies and their mNAV will experience cycles of growth and decline, as is the nature of all markets. If Bitcoin reaches $150,000, (Micro)Strategy’s own end-of-year prediction, based solely on its current holdings and assuming no additional accumulation or share issuance, its fair value, with a 1.00x NAV, would sit around $308 per share. With ongoing accumulation (potentially hitting between 700,000 – 800,000 BTC) and a slight NAV premium of 1.75–2.25x, share prices might reach the $600–$880 range. This remains a plausible scenario, particularly if we witness an S&P 500 inclusion in the near future along with a more consistent upward trend in BTC. Companies holding Bitcoin in their treasury, such as MicroStrategy, have encountered a challenging phase of underperformance even as Bitcoin reaches new heights.
Dilution, slowing accumulation, and increased competition have significantly impacted share prices. Nonetheless, their essential function in securing significant quantities of Bitcoin renders them strategically vital, and during specific market conditions, they might still provide leveraged advantages in relation to BTC. The asymmetric opportunity persists, yet investors ought to manage their expectations: the straightforward outperformance seen during the initial (Micro)Strategy era has probably concluded, giving way to a more developed and competitive environment.